Mapping the Future of "The Science of Complex Systems"
I draw a map about the science of complex systems so far and near future. My vision is that new stage is emerging around 2010, I mean it is soon! The scientists will study systems which has structure and dynamics more deeply.
The Scientific Future - envisioned by Takashi Iba, 2008
At 1970s, 1st Stage of "The Science of Complex Systems" was started. The scientists focused on nonlinear system and studied complex behaviors from deterministic simple rules. At the stage, key concepts are "chaos" and "fractal", and major method is numerical simulation. It can be said that the target is just only one system.
2nd Stage of "The Science of Complex Systems" started at 1990s. The scientists focused on complex adaptive system and studied emergent order from interactions. At the stage, key concepts are "evolution" and "learning", and major methods are cellular automata and multi-agent simulation.
In mid of 1990s, new area called "Network Science" was emerged from physics. The scientists focused on the structural asymmetry of relations or interactions, and studied the emergent order of structural connections. New concepts like "scale-free network" and "small-world network" were proposed. It was also related to "power-law distribution", "phase transition", and "history". Additional finding is the viewpoint of hidden order of co-occurrences. The major method were very-large data analysis and simulation.
Another new area was "Econophysics", which was also emerged from physics. The scientists focused on non-equilibrium dynamics, and studied emergent order of temporal fluctuations. The key concepts are related to "power-law distribution", "phase transition", and "self-organized criticality" especially in economic phenomena. They also emphasize "irreversibility" and "history". Econophysics is highly related to Network Science.
In my view, 3rd stage of "The Science of Complex Systems" are going to emerge in near future, maybe around 2010, based on 2nd stage of "The Science of Complex Systems", "Network Science", and "Econophysics". The scientists claim that massiveness is needed in the study of complex adaptive system. And Network scientists pointed out that the next challenge is "evolving dynamics of structure". In addition, Econophysics seems to be needed "evolving structure of dynamics" along the temporal fluctuation.
At the new stage, it will incorporate "Autopoietic System Theory" and "Quantum Mechanics". "Autopoietic System Theory" is thought about system as self-referential existence. The important feature is "momentary element" and "contingency". "Quantum Mechanics" is thought about wave-particle duality. The important feature is "creation and annihilation of quantum" and "uncertainty".
Well, I won't sit idly by the future, but pursue the research and contribute toward the future. In concluding this article, I would like to quote my favorite word by Alan Kay; "The best way to predict the future is to invent it."
The Scientific Future - envisioned by Takashi Iba, 2008
At 1970s, 1st Stage of "The Science of Complex Systems" was started. The scientists focused on nonlinear system and studied complex behaviors from deterministic simple rules. At the stage, key concepts are "chaos" and "fractal", and major method is numerical simulation. It can be said that the target is just only one system.
2nd Stage of "The Science of Complex Systems" started at 1990s. The scientists focused on complex adaptive system and studied emergent order from interactions. At the stage, key concepts are "evolution" and "learning", and major methods are cellular automata and multi-agent simulation.
In mid of 1990s, new area called "Network Science" was emerged from physics. The scientists focused on the structural asymmetry of relations or interactions, and studied the emergent order of structural connections. New concepts like "scale-free network" and "small-world network" were proposed. It was also related to "power-law distribution", "phase transition", and "history". Additional finding is the viewpoint of hidden order of co-occurrences. The major method were very-large data analysis and simulation.
Another new area was "Econophysics", which was also emerged from physics. The scientists focused on non-equilibrium dynamics, and studied emergent order of temporal fluctuations. The key concepts are related to "power-law distribution", "phase transition", and "self-organized criticality" especially in economic phenomena. They also emphasize "irreversibility" and "history". Econophysics is highly related to Network Science.
In my view, 3rd stage of "The Science of Complex Systems" are going to emerge in near future, maybe around 2010, based on 2nd stage of "The Science of Complex Systems", "Network Science", and "Econophysics". The scientists claim that massiveness is needed in the study of complex adaptive system. And Network scientists pointed out that the next challenge is "evolving dynamics of structure". In addition, Econophysics seems to be needed "evolving structure of dynamics" along the temporal fluctuation.
At the new stage, it will incorporate "Autopoietic System Theory" and "Quantum Mechanics". "Autopoietic System Theory" is thought about system as self-referential existence. The important feature is "momentary element" and "contingency". "Quantum Mechanics" is thought about wave-particle duality. The important feature is "creation and annihilation of quantum" and "uncertainty".
Well, I won't sit idly by the future, but pursue the research and contribute toward the future. In concluding this article, I would like to quote my favorite word by Alan Kay; "The best way to predict the future is to invent it."
Complex Systems | - | -
Today is off day between the preparation and starting day of SIGGRAPH2008. We walked aroud downtown, because we will have no time to visit during the conference days. We take a lunch in China Town, visit Little Tokyo and some museums, and finally take a dinner in Korean Town.
One of the place we visited is "Japanese American National Museum". The contents of the museum is deeper than we thought before. There are many displays and evidences about the elimination and persecution of Japanese American by the U.S. Govement during the World Wor II. Japanese Americans, who thought they were the citizen of United States and were proud of it, were obliged to live in internment camps just because their roots were Japanese. Thus, they lost their identity, and the community was mortally devided. The museum is trying to hand down the history from generation to generation in a positive way.
In the afternoon, the rest of members in my laboratory arrived at Los Angeles. Then, we went to prepare the poster session for SIGGRAPH2008. SIGGRAPH2008 is held at Los Angeles Convention Center. It's a very very large building. We went to the center, and prepare the poster session. We put the following posters at the area "G250" and "G255".
In this poster, we propose a new method for generating various patterns from chaos, which visualize the history by converting the value into an angle and plotting the circle on the two-dimensional plane. As you know, "chaos" is one of the dynamical phenomena, which the behavior seems irregular but acts under a deterministic rule. Interestingly, the behavior of chaos is not only irregular, but also have a complex structure in the system. We show the map and movie to demonstrate that the proposed method is able to generates a lot of .. an infinite of various patterns according to the initial values and a control parameter.
In his poster, we propose a new experimental tool, which we call "ChaoSwitch", for learning complex phenomena of "chaos", which it is difficult to understand intuitively because of their complex behaviors. In our approach, the students learn the complex phenomena not only by listening teacher's lecture, but also by simulating the models in 3D virtual world. We have implemented "ChaoSwitch" in the metaverse of "Second Life", which is a 3D virtual world provided by Linden Lab. When you touch the box of "ChaoSwitch"in the metaverse, the box generates the Lorenz attractor above the box. Thus you can observe the trajectory from every point of view where you want. 
My departure is earlier than other members of my laboratory, because of the reservation of the flight. On the air, I really enjoy reading the books. The photo at left is the rising sun taken from my seat. I love such a pastel, faint, and passing color of the sky.
Arriving the hotel, the taxi driver said "There are police cars, so we cannot go in front of the hotel. Please get off here." Indeed, there are two patrol cars. I was anxious about the safety around the hotels, and I hurry up to walk into the hotel. After checking-in, I was going to stroll through a street.
The patrol cars still stayed in front of the hotel. But I found a big light and some equipment. Yeah, that is not the incident but the shooting of films or something. The man wearing a shirt saturated with blood crossed on the street. Maybe he was shot by both of a gun in the story and a camera for the story :-) The staff said it's a shooting of TV drama, 
That reminds me that my first travel abroad was west coast of United States, including Los Angeles. I really wanted to go to Hollywood and Universal Studio, because I eager to become a film director when I was high-school student. Since then, about 14 years passed. Now I am a researcher / teacher, and come again in Los Angeles. In this trip, I will recall my dreams when I was so young.